Wednesday, March 07, 2007


Piling On The Pile

Tom Benjamin has another excellent post up on the Ryan Smyth deal. The second point on comparables is particularly interesting.


What do comparables even mean for UFA's?

Team A badly needs a goalie, team B already has the best goalie in the league signed (goalie Z), and both teams are able to spend to the cap limit. Goalie Y is on the market this summer, he's obviously "worth more" to team A than B.

Goalie Z signed the year previous in an identical cap limit situation as this year for 5 mil. Team A decides to pay goalie Y, the consensus 2nd best goalie in the league 6 mil per year. Can they be said to be "wrong" to have spent the money they did on Y>

Nope, unless you include Dwayne Roloson. Then I won't admit to anything.

I posted some comments on Mirtle's thread about this earlier. Basically I think Tom is wrong on most of the points.

1. Cap increases rapidly yes, Oilers budget does not. Monetary value remains relatively stable.

2. Ryan Smyth's production will decrease, same thing, how many forwards in league have maintained or increased production between years 32-36? I would wager less than 1%.

3. Contract value is inherently based on comparables. How else can you establish value really? There is no absolute value for a goal, assist, or win. The market will influence value relative to a player's comparable in terms of production, age, history, etc. Ryan Smyth may have settled for 5 million before Tanguay signed for 5.25. He's now going to be the most sought after forward on the UFA market, this will create a premium on his value. GMs will drop out of bidding when they perceive the premium becomes too great for his value.

3. No you can't find a better player than Smyth for 5.5. The point is to find a significantly better player on overspend on them, or a player we need more, like a defensemen.

4. Yes, the EIG is cheap. They will cut costs until the threat of reduced profit is realized. It sucks and something should be done, but what exactly?

One day I will learn how to count.

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