Friday, April 28, 2006

 

Friday Stats Watch

Just so anyone who wants to discuss Playoff Stats knows what they're talking about:
If there's one figure in there that really surprises me, it's the increase in PP Success, not only over the '04 Playoffs, but over the regular season (where the PP was 17.7%). Even if you subtract out the additional 5-on-3 goals, it's still well above the regular season number, and well well above the '04 playoffs number.

One other set of numbers for you:
There's a set of numbers I don't have at my fingertips, which is the average number of minutes in a regular season game (roughly 61-62) and in a playoff game (roughly 64-66). If I had them, I'd tell you what those two comparisons mean on a per-minute basis. (That is, clearly penalties were called less frequently in the '04 playoffs than in the regular season since more minutes were played; I just can't quantify it.) It's quite possible that the 12% increase in PPOpps/gm in the playoffs is entirely due to a 12% increase in Duration of Game. Based on the chat around the campfire this morning, if that is in fact the case, then if I were Gary Bettman I'd be sending out that press release, and stat. (Referees Show Perfect Consistency! I Intimidated Them Into Doing Their Jobs, Not Into Calling Phantom Stick Fouls To Keep Their Numbers High!)

# posted by Matt @ 11:51 am
Comments:

If you think about it, that second set of numbers makes perfect sense. In '04 the duration of game would have had a limited impact on total PPs because the officials weren't calling many penalties late in games or in OT. My suspicion is that if every game in the '04 playoffs ended in regulation, or conversely ended in 4 OTs, the total PP opportunities would have shown little variation, and certainly not double or more, if you use my 4 OT premise.

This year, with a, well, different enforcement standard, game duration may very well affect the total PPs, so you're probably on to something there. Anything more than 2 OTs seems unlikely now, given the increase in PPs
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : April 28, 2006 12:54 pm
 


Reading this hurt my brain. This after I spent the evening drawing up hockey stats for our hockey pool (I lose half my pool if the Oilers are eliminated).

As for haloscan, you benefitted from it when you commented yesterday so you should know what the benefits are.

No logging into blogger and having word verification, etc.

Although given I'm superstitious you either have to leave things status quo until after the games are over or you change to bring success. It's a fine line.

I've seen and read all the debates on the refs last night and all the anger and justification on both sides so will withhold my opinion on the matter.

I do have a question. How many minutes did Moreau log last night? I heard them mention him once.

Why isn't anyone talking about the hit Pronger delivered on Chelios? Or am I missing it? Or did I dream it? If it was a dream it was amazing. He had Chelios all but growing propellors and flying away. That was the highlight (either of the dream or the game) for me.
# posted by Blogger Grace : April 28, 2006 1:26 pm
 


Can't guarantee accuracy but my numbers say...

2005/06 - avg mins per game:

RS: 60:52

PO: 64:21 (to 2006-04-27 inclusive)
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : April 28, 2006 9:37 pm
 


Okay, but can you tell me what the odds are that you are full of crap? I'm going incoginito on this one cause I'm drunk.
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : April 28, 2006 10:10 pm
 


Oh yeah, another great thing about haloscan, it tracks IPs so even when people post "anonymously" you can see if it's a previous poster.

And you can ban people from commenting. I've never done that but it's a nice feature.

You'd figure I worked from them, eh?
# posted by Blogger Grace : April 29, 2006 12:07 am
 


You didn't dream the Pronger hit, but it was Cleary who got pasted, not Chelios.
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : April 29, 2006 7:11 am
 

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