That is my commitment to you, the reader: if I see a Flames fan behaving towards an Oilers fan in a way that, if it was on video, would prompt the team to be embarrassed at the connection, I'll say something. 

The biggest example is probably shouting obscenities. Just simmer down. If I point out that Johnny Gaudreau is actually a better player 5v5 than Connor McDavid, go ahead and call me a dipshit homer, but don't scream at me that I'm a m*****f****ng c**t. My factual observation will technically have no bearing on the outcome of the game! For some more examples, Mike Pfeil's list partway through the latest Scorchstack (subscribe!) is pretty good, and by that I mean, WTF.

It's supposed to be fun. Sacamano is one of my best and oldest friends, and I promise you that'll still be the case two weeks from now. Lowetide and Bruce McCurdy are probably the two most knowledgeable hockey writers I know, and I've delighted in reading them for 15+ years now. Hell, the reason I know the heads of analytics for two different NHL teams is because, back when they were amateurs and Oil fans, we played nice together on the internet!

Anyway! Series predictions:

*Bad goaltending. Both teams (both series!) had excellent goaltending in Rd1, and this just seems ripe to overcorrect. Bad Mike Smith is probably (OK, definitely) worse than Bad Jacob Markstrom, but either one could lose a game on their own, and probably will.

*Tame Matthew Tkachuk. Not ineffective, mind you, just tame. He started the Stars series by aggressively mixing it up with Klingberg and others, and it had the opposite effect that you'd hope on his play -- he was pretty much a dud until G7. He'll learn from that this series.

*Johnny. When you include the PP and 3v3, McDavid is probably in a league of his own. But Johnny Gaudreau is just an incredible threat right now at 5v5. He will be at least as impressive as #97 at even-strength, and quite possibly more.

*Result. I think Flames in 6. One win for the Oilers when they earn it, one when they don't, and the other four for the Flames.

As for tonight, I actually like a convincing win for the Flames, where they get and keep at least a 2-goal lead for the second half of the game. (Then the trouble comes in G2, when they're a bit fat & happy, plus off the momentum crest of the Rd1 win.) Call it 5-2 Flames, with Thursday featuring a bunch of articles to the effect of, "Are we sure the Oilers have the best player in this series?"

HAVE A GREAT TIME, EVERYBODY! And of course, Go Flames.

# posted by Matt @ 3:13 pm