So here's the thing: for teams that are a ways out of a playoff spot, it's not actually the little losing stretches that drive home how screwed they are; it's the little winning stretches.The Oilers are a case in point. They're 4-1 in their last 5 (all Wins in 60 minutes, well done), and they simply do not look like they're in much better shape than they did before. Last night they won, and the teams tied for 7th/8th both lost, and yet they're still 3-1/2 games out of the playoffs. On account of the Hawks being on a nice little streak (3-0-1), they haven't even moved up a single placing! Two weeks ago, the Oil was 3-1/2 out; last Friday they were 4 out; and today they're 3-1/2 out.
The Lightning are 8-3-1 in their last 12; the result has been that they have climbed out of 15th, and narrowed the distance from the SE leader from 4 games to 2 games. And yet they still have to pass every team in their division, and are 4 back of the 8-seed (Boston).
**Bonus link: I have near-zero interest in the ongoing steroids/Clemens/blah-blah, but I enjoyed this piece from last month's Washington Post urging Congress to pull their heads out of their rears. I do think Gillespie and Welch are slightly overconfident that they're part of the silent majority:
When 84-year-old retired senator Bob Dole, born in a year during which Babe Ruth hit 41 homers, is better known as a shill for erectile-dysfunction drugs than as a statesman, you've probably lost middle America on the notion that all drugs are automatically bad.
The centre of the debate is shifting, but until people start losing elections in middle America because they're too tough on drugs, the authors are projecting.
Anaheim's persistence in the Top 8 continues to amaze me. Any team that loses 3 of 4 to the Oilers simply don't deserve to make the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteBut don't forget, Grabia, some teams just "own" each other. It's illogical statistically, but it's perfectly logical psychologically. Look at the Montreal Canadiens. They've had so much trouble with the Leafs this year, even though they've been terrible. Devils, too, even though they've been above the Devils in the standings all year. Yet now matter how good or bad the Bruins have been since the lockout, it's been a complete joke when they play the Habs. They've already played something like six times, the Bruins lost every one of those games, and in I think three of them, they've been lit up for six or more goals.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, the Oilers own the Ducks, and have for most of the two teams' mutual existence. That's all there is to it.
In other words, the Oilers own the Ducks, and have for most of the two teams' mutual existence. That's all there is to it.
ReplyDeleteOn the ice at least. Off it? Less so.
Hey, there's no way Kevin Lowe could have known this year would be a deep draft. He'll only know that this summer, after the draft is over, sharing beers with Terry Jones.
ReplyDeleteWhat amazes me right now is how little the playoff picture has changed from last year. With the exception of Vancouver for Colorado, it's the same 8 teams on pace to make the playoffs. At various times this year, I have thought St. Louis, Columbus, Chicago, and Phoenix would break with tradition and enter the post-season.
ReplyDeleteI also noticed that we are up to 9.2% of points earned from OTL's, from 8.2% through most of the season. I have no idea what this means. Last season finished with about 10%.
But don't forget, Grabia, some teams just "own" each other. It's illogical statistically, but it's perfectly logical psychologically.
ReplyDeleteIf a four-game sample looking different from a 60-game population is "illogical statistically", I must have studied from some pretty bad statisticians.
A big part of the Oilers being 3 1/2 games out (despite the winning) would be how spaced out the games are. Other teams are losing the games they had in hand on Edmonton, because Edmonton has only played 5 games in the last 13 days.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I think it's probably past the point where a winning streak or two can propel you to the playoffs.
The only way the Oilers make the playoffs is to have a Buffalo like 8-0-2 run which is highly unlikely.
ReplyDeleteIf a four-game sample looking different from a 60-game population is "illogical statistically", I must have studied from some pretty bad statisticians.
ReplyDeleteI'm not talking about this season in particular, but over the course of several years and massive roster turnovers. You would think that with different players, in a vacuum, trends would change at some point, but in the Canadiens' examples that I made, as well as the EDM-ANA example, this has been going on for years, regardless of relative team or player strength. Maybe "statistically" was the wrong word, I dunno.