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Sunday, February 17, 2008

Flames Big Game Day

(cough) Huge game for the Flames tonight, at the Ponda Center to play the Ducks (6PM MT, RSN West). With a regulation win, they leapfrog Anaheim and sit in 5th in the WC (baseball standings that is); a loss in 60 drops them into a tie for 7th/8th with the Canucks, a mere half-game up on the Avs and one up on the Coyotes.

Usually the key to beating the Ducks is to take advantage of the fact that they're probably going to take more penalties than you, and outscore them on special teams. However, the Flames are one of the teams in the league least suited to do so.

Two sets of numbers on the left: the first is total GF on special teams minus total GA, and the second is of # of powerplays minus # of times shorthanded.

My statistical toolbox is pretty bare, but there is a certain degree of correlation that jumps out. Of the 12 teams at the bottom of penalty differential, not one has a positive goal differential on special teams. There's a small group of teams with poor results despite "good discipline" (COL, TOR, and especially CAR), and a small group who have gotten results that make up for "poor discipline" (DAL, CBJ, EDM, OTT).

But to some degree (medium-to-large?), the way to improve the impact of special teams on your squad's results is to take fewer penalties and draw more of them.

Here's hoping that the Flames stay out of the box; that David Moss' injury isn't too serious; that Marcus Nilson gets the call and plays well; that Selanne ties the Ducks' career scoring record on Wednesday in front of Earl, rather than tonight; that Tanguay starts playing as well with Iginla as he was last month with Nolan; and that the final score is something like Calgary 3, Anaheim 0. Go Flames.
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13 comments:

  1. andy grabiaFebruary 17, 2008 4:17 pm

    I'm on the Flames bandwagon for this one. GO FLAMES!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousFebruary 17, 2008 6:05 pm

    I had the uncomfortable experience of actually cheering for the Oilers last night.

    What a disappointment that turned out to be.

    Go Flames.

    ReplyDelete
  3. awildermodeFebruary 17, 2008 7:17 pm

    wait. did selanne come back just to become the all time ducks scorer? keep in mind that he returned just in time to go to the white house.

    ReplyDelete
  4. McLeaFebruary 17, 2008 7:21 pm

    The Ducks stink. The only reason they're winning is because they have the best defence in the league and a great golatender.

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  5. AnonymousFebruary 17, 2008 7:39 pm

    The Ducks stink. The only reason they're winning is because they have the best defence in the league and a great golatender.

    ... which makes up 2/3 of what you look for in a team. They suck becasue of that? I'm no Duck fan, but that's a bit irrational dontcha think?

    Axeman

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  6. Kent W.February 17, 2008 7:39 pm

    Flames are making you look pretty smart. They take a bunch of penalties in the 2nd and give up 4 straight goals.

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  7. awildermodeFebruary 17, 2008 7:55 pm

    Looks like the Flames are using this road trip to work on their penalty kill. So far....not so good.

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  8. SubversiveFebruary 17, 2008 8:00 pm

    The Flames are awesome. The only reason they're losing is because they play like shit so often.

    ReplyDelete
  9. McLeaFebruary 17, 2008 8:05 pm

    Ha. Can't wait for you to delete my post Grabia. I guess the only way I can criticize your nonsense is if I parrot it, and have other people criticize me. Gives you a glimpse of what people are thinking but don't actually write, don't you think?

    ReplyDelete
  10. MattFebruary 17, 2008 8:50 pm

    I'm not the guy who thinks the instigator penalty is a problem. However, I do think this is funny (funny-the milk's-gone-bad):

    Parros instigates a fight with 18 seconds left (did not actually happen): result = suspension, fine, coach fine, etc.

    Parros takes fucking kneeing penalty with 18 seconds left (did actually happen): result = 18 seconds in the box

    ReplyDelete
  11. walkinvisibleFebruary 17, 2008 9:24 pm

    The Flames are awesome. The only reason they're losing is because they play like shit so often.

    could not, and will not, be put better

    ReplyDelete
  12. doritograndeFebruary 18, 2008 3:49 pm

    It's not game-day related, but just thought I'd pass along for Flames fans here. Mickey Renaud, your fifth round draft pick in the 2007 draft has passed away in a bit of an odd occurence.

    http://www.cbc.ca/story/sports/national/2008/02/18/mickey-renaud.html#skip300x250

    They're saying he passed out and didn't regain consciousness.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Colby CoshFebruary 19, 2008 4:02 am

    As always in a time of tragedy, our thoughts turn to the ultimate question: why couldn't it happen to Chris Pronger instead?

    ReplyDelete