You lose to Tampa Bay, Carolina, Washington and Los Angeles within a seven day span --guess what? You are a bad hockey team. I don't care that the Washington game went to OT, or that they almost tied it up in Tampa tonight. That's the bottom line. Barring a major miracle, and I mean a major miracle, this team will fail to make the playoffs for the fourth time in seven years. Seven years is how long the Kevin Lowe/Craig MacTavish pairing have been running the show. Coincidence? I don't think so. I think it's worth exploring, at the bare minimum. Contrary to what some people think, coaches, managers and players are expected to win. Results do matter.
This team is bad. For a bunch of reasons. And yes, injuries and a trade demand have played their part. But those can't be, those shouldn't be, used as excuses forever. There are many other reasons why this team is bad, reasons that have their origins at the top of the org. chart. Those decisions from up top are a large part of why this team is so low in the standings. So, for all those tired of hearing me talk about an arena and ownership, here's your chance...how bout those Oilers?
The Oil were a proud dominant team in the 80's.Back then, the Oiler players were underpaid for what they brought to the table. Its the exact opposite now, the Oilers of today are a mismanaged scab team with players getting overpaid to under-produce. Lowe is at fault, and probably MacT also, although he has played with the hand dealt to him. The biggest problem that I see, is if this group (Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson etc...) are the ones that we are building around, then the building will never be to "high". I don't see any of the above mentioned players being franchise types who can write a new chapter in Oiler history. A total teardown with a few #1-4 picks are the only way to fix this properly. And fire Lowe!!!
ReplyDeleteI agree, they stink.
ReplyDeleteI think the coaching/management is worse than the personnel. However, both share the blame for this debacle.
ReplyDeleteI also like MacT, and I was hesitant to mention him in this. To me, it's about management. I'm a big Billy Beane fan, and my natural inclination is to always start with the manager when looking at team performance. The A's have shown that smart managers can win without money. The Leafs have shown that bad managers can't win with it, no matter how much they spend.
ReplyDeleteThis team has a core five players deep: Horcoff, Hemsky, Pisani, Moreau and Staios. Gilbert, Penner and Pitkanen are working their way into that group, and Staios seems to be working his way out from it. Beyond that, the team has youngsters Gagner and Cogliano, and question marks Stoll and Torres. After that, some good players, some average players, and some bad players. That obviously hasn't been enough this year, but is it enough to build future success around?
I agree, they stink.
ReplyDeleteWHAT!? I thought you loved this team? :)
I'd just like to say that, before this began, I predicted a 1-5 road trip for the Oilers back when they were, if you'd recall, pretty freakin' hot.
ReplyDeleteSeriously. You can set your clock to the hope-killing 1-5 January road trip every year.
Anyway, I'm vastly more inclined to blame MacTavish (oh, shall we break out the ol' 'CrackT'? I think we shall) than Lowe. Yes, this team is crap, but no small part of the reason this team is crap is because it is, tactically, run by a chimpanzee and has been for years.
You know how some coaches put out the strange matchup and you say "well, I wouldn't do that" and it works? CrackT is like that minus the "and it works" part. Saying that he knows more about hockey than the rest of us sounds good, but the simple fact of the matter is he keeps making odd tactical decisions and they keep being wrong.
MacTavish was roadkill before our run to the Finals. His contract wasn't going to be renewed, he was on everybody's list of coaches in jeopardy, he was as good as gone. Then Roloson and Pisani got hot and it screwed up the Oilers' coaching situation for years to come. Lowe's got his faults, but I don't blame him for this one.
Well, I for one enjoy your arena/EIG commentary. Especially because this is one of the few places that you might get an opinion that actually asks a hard question once in a while. BTW - Global TV is leaking a story that the Journal will release tomorrow about the "2nd alternative". Mock Turtle's antics are indeed turning out to be stall tactics.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the team goes, not sure what everybody's complaining about. From what I have seen, its pretty obvious this is a development season where running in new talent and giving extended tryouts is the strategy. Didn't MacT say just a few days ago that he was gonna play the kids? If we win this year, it seems like its a bonus.
Only thing I don't get is when we gas yet another game, the post game podcasts feature a truly pissed off/disappointed Mact. On the one hand, "we're going with the rooks" and on the other, "fuck!!!!".
I think somebody's been taking acting lessons this summer. Is this what's referred to as "managing the optics"?
Just sayin'
From what I have seen, its pretty obvious this is a development season where running in new talent and giving extended tryouts is the strategy.
ReplyDeleteDavid, I'd be their biggest supporter on that if I actually believed it was their plan all along. But it wasn't. You don't spend to the cap wall in a rebuilding year. My biggest grievance with this organization is that they continually abuse the trust of the fanbase, and to me this is another example of it. Pick a story, and a strategy, and run with it. Don't change your tune once the old one gets you in some hot water. Like saying that the Pronger deal was a good trade because you got Dustin Penner out of it, for example. Don't feed us this junk.
LB, you called it. Any idea of the January record of this team over the past few years? It sure feels like they always tank right now.
Andy,
ReplyDeleteEdmonton is simply not an attractive place for alot of the guys we'd like to get in here. The Nylander attempt revealed that. So we have to pay all the coin for anybody who we can convince to come. I think the original plan was to have a competitive team this year. But injuries and failed acquisitions shifted that strategy. So plan B seems to be a DIY rebuild. Having said that...
This management group is scared shitless of losing their season ticket holder base. While a complete tear-down and rebuild would be the way to go, SSH's wouldn't tolerate it. To pacify them, they ice a team that's at least entertaining while the young guys grow their permanent feathers. Its a compromise strategy which I suspect is more than a little driven by Mock Turtle and his cronies.
And MacT's aneurysm grows larger every day in the process.
I think the original plan was to have a competitive team this year. But injuries and failed acquisitions shifted that strategy.
ReplyDeleteIsn't being able to handle unforeseen circumstances part of being a good manager? Injuries aren't a rare occurrence, and there are 29 other GMs in the league.
Edmonton is simply not an attractive place for alot of the guys we'd like to get in here. The Nylander attempt revealed that. So we have to pay all the coin for anybody who we can convince to come.
Cmon, now. We paid that coin for Nylander, and he still didn't come here (thank God). That's a terrible excuse. I'd laugh at any GM who said that to me. What he would be saying is that the team is badly managed because he had to manage the team badly to compete. Plus, if that was the case--which I don't concede--wouldn't your strategy then be to hoard draft picks, who have less flexibility in deciding where they want to play than free agents? We have given a few of those up in the past three years, haven't we?
To pacify them, they ice a team that's at least entertaining while the young guys grow their permanent feathers
They had NO idea coming into camp that Cogliano and Gagner would even make the team. Same goes for Gilbert.
I still like Lowe and Mactavish. I still firmly believe that Pronger fucked this team for a long time. We are still feeling the effects of that disaster.
ReplyDeleteLook how many freaking rookies are on this team. What the fuck did you expect this team to do? 2nd youngest team in the league and they are almost at .500. Baby steps guys, baby steps. Dont even try the whole "we've been rebuilding for ever" bs either.
-doug
I think the Oil have made more than their share of personnel mistakes, but if you switch Luongo with Roloson/Garon, the Oil are in the middle of the Northwest tractor pull. Until you get a top 5 goalie, everything else is built on a foundation of sand. But you can say that for the vast majority of NHL teams. It appears that Deslauriers and Dubnyk aren't the answers, so the Oil have to go back to the drawing board and keep throwing spaghetti at the goalie wall until one sticks.
ReplyDeleteThere's a way to placate fans of a team based in a city with a strong economy by spending to the cap by doing it with different players and just one-year-at-a-time.
ReplyDeleteFor instance, the Oilers cheaped out last year but they went somewhat close to the cap and instead of potentially Nylandering themselves, we will also accept Souraying, the Oilers signed Sykora for a one year stopgap. This season, the Oilers could've blown Brad Stuart out of the water with an offer and did it for just one year instead of tying their hands with Souray for many years. And if they'd inked Stuart for a year at an inflated price, then the fans can see the team going to the cap but the org still has some flexibility for the years ahead.
The Oilers should be the kings of the the one year deals; assuming that it's hard to get guys you want or should want on longterm pacts. A guy like Guerin went to the Isles for two years, even a deal like that wouldn't have been too bad. Instead the Oilers sign Souray for five years and it's probably going to cost themn Souray in the process.
So instead of builing around a Pitkanen, you have to worry about Souray.
Andy's going with missing the playoffs in four of the last seven years, but I''ll go with three of the last four or even say two of the last three.
Also, it looks like the only reason the Oilers could contend in the new NHL was because they'd been so cheap in the old one that they could afford to take on the salaries of Pronger and Peca.
Hey, did you notice my team is first in the west? Go Flames.
ReplyDeleteYour team is in a real dilemna - Lowe seems to be unfireable, but you can take cold comfort in this: Sather was even worse the last few years of his rein (and has continued to be worse in New York) and he would never have been fired either. Think how bad your team might be if smirkin' Glen was still running the show.
Hey, did you notice my team is first in the west? Go Flames.
ReplyDeleteWhat "west" are you referring to, Peter? It looks to me like the Flames are eighteen points behind the team they'll lose to in six again this spring.
Holy negativity ...
ReplyDeleteWell, I do believe this team had a future unlike the Maple Leafs who appear to be headed down a long hard road of suck for the next while. We have a good collection of youn players.
I don't like to whine about the coaching and management too much but I do think they thought we were a little better than we actually are - after our recent cup run.
How about comparing the coaching/management style to that of the Pittsburgh Steelers. What I mean by that is not hiring/firing coaches and GMs left and right. I think we could all agree they are a pretty successful franchise.
But, in their defense, especially Lowe's, how many years of money-forced trades (pre-CBA), and player-forced trades (Chris F@#%$@ Pronger) can a GM deal with and not see and adverse affect on the team.
Have a little faith guys ... we are competitive most nights and are not getting blown out on a regular basis.
Anyone who doesn't believe Lowe would do all he can for this team is dreaming. See Penner deal - which doesn't look all that bad at the moment. He had huge balls to pull off that deal and it shows his commitment to the team.
Just throwing out some non-negative thoughts ...
Anyone who doesn't believe Lowe would do all he can for this team is dreaming. See Penner deal - which doesn't look all that bad at the moment. He had huge balls to pull off that deal and it shows his commitment to the team.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone's questioning Lowe's commitment. Just his managerial acumen and intellect. Yeah, the Penner gamble is looking like it will pay off. What about the Lupul gamble? The Suray gamble? the Vanek/Nylander offer sheets?
It sure looks like he doesn't know what he's doing.
But, in their defense, especially Lowe's, how many years of money-forced trades (pre-CBA)
ReplyDeleteCorrection: Ryan Smyth was traded in 2007. Also, do we get magic beans back for Pronger if ownership wasn't so Goddamned cheap prior to this year? The more I think on this, the more I think the EIG bears significant blame for the post-2006 disaster. This is not to say I hold Lowe blameless by any stretch, but I now suspect that he's not alone in forging this mess.
It sure looks like he doesn't know what he's doing.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure you can count the Lupul deal ... again, with a gun to his head, he probably did the best he could.
Souray, according to Mr. Staples's error ratings may not be as bad as most people think. He may not be the 26 goal scorer of last year. But, he is a solid d-man. Perhaps overpaid.
Vanek ... just sticking it to Buffalo - makes me laugh.
Nylander - you're right, bad deal, glad we didn't get him in the end.
How about all his deals at the deadline before the cup run? I think all of them turned out golden (Spacek, Tarnstrom, Samsonov, Roloson). It shows his ability to identify areas for improvement and fill those holes with the appropriate player. A player who could step up and fill the role - talent eval. He was in the driver's seat for all those deals and made good on all of them without giving up a lot.
I am curious to see what, if any deadline moves are made this year.
It shows his ability to identify areas for improvement and fill those holes with the appropriate player.
ReplyDeleteWait for it. Wait for it...
Correction: Ryan Smyth was traded in 2007
ReplyDeleteWith it being reported as being such a small difference in money between the Oilers and Smyth I have a hard time believing it was JUST a money-forced trade. Its about paying for the past or what he can do in the future.
Smytty (really like the guy) has not had a great season. Sure her brings a pretty unique skill-set but 6 million is a lot of money for him.
Honestly, on what basis are people still defending MacT? Does anyone not think that if we had Andy Murray or Ted Nolan or Pat Burns our record would be better? The Oilers are crappy/young, and have a few bad contracts...but there are enough pieces there to have a better record than they do.
ReplyDeleteMacT's player choices and match ups have been beyond bizarre this year, his record is poor except for one playoff run, his teams consistantly fail to show up for games (especially when playing 'poor' teams, as if this team has the right to judge another), the PP is rarely respectable despite seemingly solid personnel, etc. He's the best quote in the league, but I'm not sure why he gets so much credit.
Sure, in 2006 we had a great run, but look at the lines we could match. With Horc and Peca he had two lines that he could throw anywhere, Stoll was playing well, and even the fourth line was solid defensively...it probably would have been tough to screw that up, especially considering 44 was on the ice half the f'in game.
"I am not sure you can count the Lupul deal ... again, with a gun to his head, he probably did the best he could."
ReplyDeleteThere was no gun. He shit the bed of his own free will.
As for Souray, it's not his play so much as the great whopping albatross of a contract.
"How about all his deals at the deadline before the cup run? I think all of them turned out golden (Spacek, Tarnstrom, Samsonov, Roloson). It shows his ability to identify areas for improvement and fill those holes with the appropriate player. A player who could step up and fill the role - talent eval. He was in the driver's seat for all those deals and made good on all of them without giving up a lot."
Can you explain how a guy with such a great eye can be responsible for so much shittery since his magic days of '06? Because he's looking more and more like the proverbial blind squirrel.
"I am curious to see what, if any deadline moves are made this year."
Me too, in much the same way Anne Frank was curious about the knock on the attic door.
Me too, in much the same way Anne Frank was curious about the knock on the attic door.
ReplyDeleteAgreed: Lowe = Hitler.
LittleFury ... you definitely have the appropriate handle ... soon to be BIGFury.
ReplyDeleteAgreed: Lowe = Hitler.
Doesn't this kind of post belong on the HF Boards!? LOL
See Cult of Hockey latest post HERE
... still you guys crack me up. :)
And BTW, thank you Grabia for posting on actual hockey rather than arenas and owners.
"Agreed: Lowe = Hitler."
ReplyDeleteI suppose that would be the McLeasian interpretation.
The team, as young at it is, is hovering around .500. They don't get blown out most nights (seriously, what has it been, 3 games?) and there's no way that MacT gets 100% out of half of the players.
ReplyDeleteThis team is a contender. MacT is not.
Me too, in much the same way Anne Frank was curious about the knock on the attic door.
ReplyDeleteThis might be a "comment of the year" candidate.
I'm glad that Staples has laid out a new code of conduct for us Oilers fans.
ReplyDeleteI was getting sick of making up my own mind based on things like stats and visual evidence.
Considering this team is about to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in seven years, and is in the bottom five of the league for the second year in a row, I'd consider a negative reaction to be the only sane reaction. But hey, if the bar is now set at, "we try really hard," who am I to judge? I was under the impression that the point of competitive sports was the pursuit of excellence, but clearly I'm wrong. I know now that I should treat the Oilers like I treat my son's Atom team.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, Andy and dennis, I don't think Staples was suggesting Roli or any other player be exempted from criticism for their play, only that the drooling meatheads over at HF and the like tend to go a bit overboard. In other words it's the difference between "Roloson is playing poorly and needs to get his shit together" and "Fuck Roli he suxxors!!1!!"
ReplyDeleteWhich may be an arbitrary distinction now that I look at it. carry on, then.
I wasn't even talking about Staples, but because we are on the subject: that "error stat" is a really bad idea. It's actually more subjective and arbitrary than +/-, the stat it's "supposed" to replace. I've been ignoring it, because it hasn't been thrown around on here, but now that it is, let me just say: I have zero time for it.
ReplyDeleteCriticism is criticism and if you play in a market where fans are apt to love you, you'll play in one where fans are apt to hate you.
ReplyDeleteStaples is his own cat, that's for sure. Always on the lookout for those dastardly guys who don't like Lowe. That's his first objective, or so it seems. Now he's moved on to the whole idea of who you should criticize.
Interesting though that he's looking out for Roli but he's overly "considerate" of poor old Marty Reasoner;)
I find it weird that no one will step outside and ask just what the fuck's going on here. Three of four years out of the playoffs and it could be another two seasons before we get back in. Still, everything's fine because everyone's trying.
I wasn't even talking about Staples, but because we are on the subject: that "error stat" is a really bad idea.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna pull a Dan Mason here and say that I've been misquoted. I applaud the idea of finding something different than +/- to determine a player's defensive value. I just don't think the "error" is a very good solution.
Man, that Grabia is always misquoting me.
BTW, AG, I think Staples is on to something but it means very little without the context of who these errors are against.
ReplyDeleteFor one thing, it's one thing to assign an error for Joe Thornton pushing you off the puck, yet another if it's Shawn Thornton.
I think we've all learned a lot by looking at counting stats and plus/minus through quality of comp glasses so to go back to simple errors might not be going backwards, but it isn't getting forward a whole lot either.
For me...I have spent all year hoping that we could stay out of the bottom 10 of the league just to save face when the bloated irishman walks to the podium and selects a future all-star.
ReplyDeleteHowever, something dawned on me during the ridiculous Caps shootout loss. WHO CARES! Kevin Lowe deserves to be made fun of league wide if that happens much the same way Milbury is still a punchline for giving Spezza to Ottawa. If the ducks draft in the top 5 I would hope that this might take some of the tarnish off of Lowe in the eyes of the ownership (whoever that may be) and get some new blood in here.
I think a big problem here is that people are still nostalgic of when K.Lowe was able to find good deals for pricey veterans and keep a competitive, yet extremely cheap, team. However, it has become painfully obvious that much like Slats Kevin does not know how to run a team with a decent payroll and I am finally on board with him getting fired when the ducks draft Doughty this spring.
It has taken me a while but finally, who cares...hopefully it get's him fired.
Disclaimer...I like Penner just think that giving away draft picks in a "reload" year, as kevin called, it is bad asset managment.
Take care,
Jon
"Cmon, now. We paid that coin for Nylander, and he still didn't come here (thank God)."
ReplyDeleteExactly. We have to pay the huge dough and it still isn't certain a player will want to come. That kinda sets the tone wouldn't you think? So it seems we have to overpay to even be considered. Witness Souray (and yeah, that's a can of worms I probably shouldn't open). Option (b) would seem to be a "grow your own" approach - which is kinda what we're seeing.
To sum up, much of our chirping is based on the premise "all things being equal". I think we've seen that in our case, they clearly are not any more.
"...wouldn't your strategy then be to hoard draft picks, who have less flexibility in deciding where they want to play than free agents?"
I see your point. On the other hand, wasn't it Lowetide or MC79 who openly questioned the true value of high draft picks, asserting that they might be vastly overrated?
"They had NO idea coming into camp that Cogliano and Gagner would even make the team. Same goes for Gilbert."
Well, I'd say that Gagner looked pretty good coming in. As far as the other guys, ya gotta think its a calculated gamble, based on scouting reports and gut instinct. I mean, they DID get invited to camp in the first place. Does that give too much credit to Lowe and crew? Maybe. But just because his "plan" isn't obvious to us doesn't mean he doesn't have one. I have to think dealing Smyth and Smith might have something to do with that hidden agenda (shit, there's that can of worms again).
As much as I hear that "nooo plannn" thing, it just seems to me we're making some pretty harsh commentary based on what we THINK is going on. As fans, I guess its our right. But maybe we really don't have all the information to make a proper condemnation.
But then maybe I've been reading Black Dog's blog too much and there's far too much sunshine blowing up my ass.
I wasn't even talking about Staples, but because we are on the subject: that "error stat" is a really bad idea. It's actually more subjective and arbitrary than +/-, the stat it's "supposed" to replace. I've been ignoring it, because it hasn't been thrown around on here, but now that it is, let me just say: I have zero time for it.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on the error stat in baseball? Would the error stat REALLY be that much different in hockey?
Someone in baseball is making the ultimate decision on what is an error and who it is assigned to ... as opposed to attempting to make a play and just missing it (ie: not getting the error).
What are your thoughts on the error stat in baseball?
ReplyDeleteHate it. Terrible stat.
Would the error stat REALLY be that much different in hockey?
No, which means it would suck just as bad.
To sum up, much of our chirping is based on the premise "all things being equal". I think we've seen that in our case, they clearly are not any more.
ReplyDeleteIt's never been equal. Lots of guys will choose New York or L.A. over Edmonton, Calgary, St. Paul or Ottawa. Lots of guys would choose Toronto or Montreal over New York or L.A. It's something every franchise in every sport has to deal with. It's not a suitable excuse for poor performance.
It's never been equal. Lots of guys will choose New York or L.A. over Edmonton, Calgary, St. Paul or Ottawa. Lots of guys would choose Toronto or Montreal over New York or L.A. It's something every franchise in every sport has to deal with. It's not a suitable excuse for poor performance.
ReplyDeletei didn't buy that argument either. then the media repeated it back to me for the last year and now i concede it must be true. seems like the hockey media can't mention "edmonton" without spitting on the ground with disgust.
The biggest difference between the Oilers and the Flames recently, in my opinion, is that the Flames simply have a much better GM. Sutter has pretty consistently signed players at or under market value, and found players who were under-valued by other GM's. Aside from the Stuart trade last year, I'm hard pressed to think of a trade he's made since taking over that you could clearly say he's *lost*. I'm sure someone will correct me with some examples, but nothing else comes to mind at the moment.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, in the cap era, it's just like trading the stock market. You have to find value where others miss it and capitalize on it. Lowe seems to suck at that a little bit, and I doubt the Oilers will ever be an elite team again with him running the show.
Also, the argument of 'players don't want to come here' is total crap. If that was true, it would certainly also be true of Calgary (hell, we don't even have a giant mega-mall to our name) and you haven't seen any shortage of players willing to sign in Calgary.
This whole argument reminds me of the line in Connery dropped in "The Rock":
ReplyDelete"Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen."
"Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen."
ReplyDeleteMaybe not the most effective line to use in criticizing Kevin Lowe? Hell, they manufacture those tiaras in bulk. Olympic medals, otoh
somehow i think lowe and co. nailed plenty of prom queens in their time. it still doesn't make the team a winner.
ReplyDeletei should clarify that i don't really buy the argument either. it just seems that you can't turn on the television without someone reminding you of this "fact". edmonton is full of barely high school educated dudes making lots of money. you think that these guys would feel right at home.
ReplyDeleteIt's a metaphor, man!
ReplyDelete"Also, the argument of 'players don't want to come here' is total crap."
ReplyDeleteWell, its maybe not the players as much as their wives (spits). Most of the guys we covet are/are going to make big contracts and are usually married to spoiled puck bunnies (Pronger, Nylander). Seems they've got alot more pull than they did a few years ago.
Sounds kinda weak I know, but Lowe's near-crying interview last summer was either a John Candy Masterpiece Theatre performance or the result of a truly frustrated guy. OK. Probably a bit of both.
Having said that, the situation does beg the question: Just what the fuck is going on here? I guess the only way to get an answer to that would be to see what happens when Katz takes over the team. I can't help thinking that ownership is sticking its fingers into team policy more than we know. Not to mention "geniuses" like Pat Laforge.
It's a metaphor, man!
ReplyDeletequit with all your fancy literary stuff. i'm only an accountant and unless it can be expressed in a debit or credit...i get completely lost!
Hey Andy,
ReplyDeleteWhy not do a "Oilers through 50" like Matt does with the Flames? I'd love to see the contrast.
At the very least, it would be a great piece of comedy. Or a suicide note I suppose.
stauffer's reporting that 3 more members of the board (EIG) have stepped down. i think andy would rather talk about that. the depression involving the first 50 is simply not worth it.
ReplyDeleteps note to self. easiest way to annoy andy. take all metaphors literally.