Monday, July 17, 2006
Cap Watch - Local Edition
Here's a look at the cap/roster situation for the Canadian teams in the Northwest Division (click to enlarge):
I've used the same source numbers as Andy basically, but note the following:
I don't envy Dave Nonis a bit. You can't really find fault with any individual move he's made; in fact, some of them have been terrific (I'd give him an A+ on both the Bertuzzi-Luongo trade and the Cloutier trade). But he's in a brutal, brutal position.
If any Canucks fans are wondering why they haven't signed Anson Carter to a deal, the sheet above should make that pretty clear. Even if you get him for $2.5M per season, which has got to be the low end of what he could get:
I suppose what this means for Canucks fans is that if the team is good, then, Whew! Everyone's tied up for at least 2 years, and they get a couple of kicks at the cat. But if they're bad, or mediocre, there's hardly a thing they can do to retool. Developing...
I've used the same source numbers as Andy basically, but note the following:
- Just like the previous times I've gone through this, I've shown a minimum salary at each roster slot that's unfilled. I just think it gives a better overall picture of the true amount each team has (or doesn't) to spend.
- At this point, RFA players are not going anywhere unless via trade, so I think it's wise to show them on the roster.
- Stoll and Hemsky are lined up for arbitration, so the $value of their Qualifying Offer is no longer relevant - I've just put in an estimate. (I should note also that the estimate is for a settlement prior to actually going through S.A.; since S.A. is of the Final Offer variety where the judge selects either the team or player figure, I would expect the numbers to be lower if the Oilers "win", and higher if the players win.)
- I've also just thrown in estimates for Lupul and Lombardi, because I expect them to sign for salaries that are higher than their QO.
- The salary estimates for all 6 Canucks are the exact number of their QO's; presumably one or more of them will actually sign for more, and we should find this out soon. (The QO$ is a 10% raise if the old salary was $450-$660k; a 5% raise if it was $660k-$1M; and no raise if it was >$1M.)
I don't envy Dave Nonis a bit. You can't really find fault with any individual move he's made; in fact, some of them have been terrific (I'd give him an A+ on both the Bertuzzi-Luongo trade and the Cloutier trade). But he's in a brutal, brutal position.
If any Canucks fans are wondering why they haven't signed Anson Carter to a deal, the sheet above should make that pretty clear. Even if you get him for $2.5M per season, which has got to be the low end of what he could get:
- The team would be within $650k of the salary cap
- They'd still need to sign (or assign) two forwards who they actually plan to dress; every dollar that these two guys get above the minimum eats into that $650k
- They'd still need to sign (or assign) one or two guys to sit in the press box; every dollar these guys get above the minimum eats into that $650k
- And again, there's 6 RFAs who haven't actually signed contracts yet; every dollar they get above the QO$ eats into that $650k
- This doesn't even address the need for regular short-term injury replacements
I suppose what this means for Canucks fans is that if the team is good, then, Whew! Everyone's tied up for at least 2 years, and they get a couple of kicks at the cat. But if they're bad, or mediocre, there's hardly a thing they can do to retool. Developing...
# posted by Matt @ 8:47 am 
Comments:
Marc Chouinard has still not been placed on the Canucks official roster yet. Methinks he was acquired to sweeten a trade deal, probably involving Matt Cooke (of the 1.5 million dollar fame).
That will free up a bit of room for the 'Nucks but you are right, it doesn't look pretty.
Considering New Jersey's going to be $8, 9-million higher than Vancouver, I think Nonis will be okay in terms of the cap. His real problems are going to start when this team can't score after the season starts.
I also can't see the team putting anyone in the press box if they're this tight against the cap. (They aren't required to do so.)
You're right about the press box thing James, but I think you need to count one salary there anyway. (It's equivalent to estimating that your team will lose 82 man-games to day-to-day injuries and illnesses, which I think is roughly average).
New Jersey's problems, though, are their own; the Canucks don't get any breaks for only being (say) 4th-most-Fucked in terms of the cap.
It will be interesting, though. If the Canucks start out poorly, the ONLY plausible option as a shake-up is trading Markus Naslund, probably for less than equal value. Can't fire the coach (just hired); can't trade Morrison (overpaid); don't WANT to trade anyone else (i.e. all the guys they just signed to good deals). Like I say, developing...
A salary dump for a guy like Matt Cooke would probably give them enough flexibility to do something.
As I said, Nonis's big problem is that his collection of talent isn't all that great, not that it has put him up against the cap.
As I said, Nonis's big problem is that his collection of talent isn't all that great
It isn't all that bad, either.
Wow. Even if all three RFAs sign for $500K more than estimated (it could happen with at least one), we're still looking at $6-7M (leaving $2-3M cap flexibility) to upgrade two forward and two D positions. Assume those two Fs are going to be rookies/AHLers, which can't up things by more than about $1M total, then we can take on a massive salary dump from one of the cap-fucked teams.
Now, it's really just a matter of getting the RFAs signed and figuring out what we have in terms of space. And it's not like we can't use, say, $3-4M now and save the rest for another deadline orgy like last year.
It isn't all that bad, either.
Perhaps, but I can't quite figure out who will fill out the empty right wing slots there. If Brendan Morrison can't earn his salary, the Sedins are going to have to produce the bulk of the offence with whoever they're paired with.
The defence is also going to rely on guys like Bourdon and Krajicek for fairly substantial minutes.
The Flames lineup looks far better.
I hate to say it, but I think Naslund's got to go - I like the idea of trading him to Philadelphia for Simon Gagne.
trading him to Philadelphia for Simon Gagne
I can see how swapping Gagne for Naslund gives the Canucks some cap relief without surrendering too much net offensive talent, but there's no way Clarke makes that deal.
Even if he wanted to swap #1 left wings, he has his own cap problems.
Philadelphia, I believe, can afford Naslund.
According to hockeyanalysis.com, Philly is sitting at $36.75M with a 20 man roster, not including whatever contract is awarded to Gagne through arbitration - I would guess around 4.5-$5M per.
Nonis might consider sweetening the deal by throwing in one of the numerous goalie prospects the Canucks have, that are now more expendeble with the long-term signing of Luongo.
Anyways, I realize this is neither the time nor place for this discussion, I just do not see how the Canucks can ice a competitive team with both Luongo & Naslund's huge contracts.
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Marc Chouinard has still not been placed on the Canucks official roster yet. Methinks he was acquired to sweeten a trade deal, probably involving Matt Cooke (of the 1.5 million dollar fame).
That will free up a bit of room for the 'Nucks but you are right, it doesn't look pretty.
Considering New Jersey's going to be $8, 9-million higher than Vancouver, I think Nonis will be okay in terms of the cap. His real problems are going to start when this team can't score after the season starts.
I also can't see the team putting anyone in the press box if they're this tight against the cap. (They aren't required to do so.)
You're right about the press box thing James, but I think you need to count one salary there anyway. (It's equivalent to estimating that your team will lose 82 man-games to day-to-day injuries and illnesses, which I think is roughly average).
New Jersey's problems, though, are their own; the Canucks don't get any breaks for only being (say) 4th-most-Fucked in terms of the cap.
It will be interesting, though. If the Canucks start out poorly, the ONLY plausible option as a shake-up is trading Markus Naslund, probably for less than equal value. Can't fire the coach (just hired); can't trade Morrison (overpaid); don't WANT to trade anyone else (i.e. all the guys they just signed to good deals). Like I say, developing...
A salary dump for a guy like Matt Cooke would probably give them enough flexibility to do something.
As I said, Nonis's big problem is that his collection of talent isn't all that great, not that it has put him up against the cap.
As I said, Nonis's big problem is that his collection of talent isn't all that great
It isn't all that bad, either.
Wow. Even if all three RFAs sign for $500K more than estimated (it could happen with at least one), we're still looking at $6-7M (leaving $2-3M cap flexibility) to upgrade two forward and two D positions. Assume those two Fs are going to be rookies/AHLers, which can't up things by more than about $1M total, then we can take on a massive salary dump from one of the cap-fucked teams.
Now, it's really just a matter of getting the RFAs signed and figuring out what we have in terms of space. And it's not like we can't use, say, $3-4M now and save the rest for another deadline orgy like last year.
# posted by 
: July 17, 2006 2:17 pm
: July 17, 2006 2:17 pm It isn't all that bad, either.
Perhaps, but I can't quite figure out who will fill out the empty right wing slots there. If Brendan Morrison can't earn his salary, the Sedins are going to have to produce the bulk of the offence with whoever they're paired with.
The defence is also going to rely on guys like Bourdon and Krajicek for fairly substantial minutes.
The Flames lineup looks far better.
I hate to say it, but I think Naslund's got to go - I like the idea of trading him to Philadelphia for Simon Gagne.
# posted by : July 17, 2006 4:17 pm
: July 17, 2006 4:17 pm trading him to Philadelphia for Simon Gagne
I can see how swapping Gagne for Naslund gives the Canucks some cap relief without surrendering too much net offensive talent, but there's no way Clarke makes that deal.
Even if he wanted to swap #1 left wings, he has his own cap problems.
# posted by : July 17, 2006 10:16 pm
: July 17, 2006 10:16 pm Philadelphia, I believe, can afford Naslund.
According to hockeyanalysis.com, Philly is sitting at $36.75M with a 20 man roster, not including whatever contract is awarded to Gagne through arbitration - I would guess around 4.5-$5M per.
Nonis might consider sweetening the deal by throwing in one of the numerous goalie prospects the Canucks have, that are now more expendeble with the long-term signing of Luongo.
Anyways, I realize this is neither the time nor place for this discussion, I just do not see how the Canucks can ice a competitive team with both Luongo & Naslund's huge contracts.
# posted by : July 18, 2006 9:53 am
: July 18, 2006 9:53 am Post a Comment
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