Battle of Alberta Game Day

Here we are, upon the biggest Battle of Alberta since the lockout (7PM MT, RSN West; Quinn, Ferraro, & Gene). The Flames and Oilers played two April Firsts ago, but because of the Olympic break, there were still 8 games left thereafter. (Also: Happy 2nd Birthday, Little Miss Sacamano!) Last year, you may recall, late season Oiler games were not too suspenseful.

This year, as noted yesterday, there's a lot at stake for both teams. The Oilers care about nothing but getting in; that's Job One for the Flames, too, but they're also hoping to avoid Detroit and probably San Jose in the 1st Round, preferring to get the playoff legs going before facing a team of that high asuperior calibre.

Lineup. 79 games into the season, here's how I see it: the Flames have 10 forwards who should be dressed every game (Huselius, Langkow, Iginla, Tanguay, Conroy, Nolan, Yelle, Lombardi, Moss, and Nilson). I think this is pretty uncontroversial. Huselius, even in a 7:00-per-game PP specialist role, is a better option than the alternatives. Nilson is a very good defensive forward who can hold his own against any opposition; and Moss has a bit of touch and does his part keeping the puck going in the right direction.

After that you have Primeau, Godard, Boyd, Nystrom, and Smith. I don't think Nystrom and Smith bring anything to the table; neither does any one thing particularly well (except possibly Nystrom on the PK, but he's far from irreplaceable). This means two of the others need to dress, and one needs to sit.

The by-the-book answer here is that Godard needs to sit. In 71 GP this season, he has 13 shots on goal, and the 4th line (aka the Godard line, use those interchangeably) can be counted on to get pinned in their own end for what seems like an eternity -- and then usually ice the puck -- several times a game. But! He has played 71 games, which means that Keenan sees clear value in having him dressed, even if I can't see it and/or this value does not exist.

Barring a Godard scratch, then it's hard to say which of Primeau/Boyd you want in. It depends a bit on the roles the coach has for everyone else. Right now, I'd be inclined to leave the Primeau-Lombo-Yelle line intact. They have held their own over the past 10 games or so, and in fact, Primeau has beaten a D-man wide in consecutive games! This could be a sign that he's on the mend from whatever condition was afflicting him most of the season (you know, the one that always caused him to assume a concrete-legged defensive zone stance in the manner of a very passive penalty kill, even at 5-on-5).

So no Boyd. But wait a second: why wouldn't you want Boyd in the lineup instead of Godard, again? He's been on for more frequent Goals Against than Godard, but part of that is playing against better players at times, whereas Godard is always on the Godard line playing the other guy's 4th line. And besides, most of this is mitigated by being on the ice for Goals For twice as frequently as Godard (and the rest could be mitigated, if desired, by managing Boyd's TOI as carefully as Godard's).

Plus, if the Flames are trailing in the game, clearly Boyd is a better option. And as a bonus, he can take Conroy's place on the 2nd PP unit, where his skill probably represents an upgrade.

Jeez, I'm pretty sure I've convinced myself here. I don't think Godard adds anything to the Flames' desired identity as a physical team: he doesn't play enough; most of the defensive corps are better bodycheckers than he is anyway; and clearly his presence has not magically meant that guys like Iginla and Phaneuf have to fight, or otherwise respond to challenges, less frequently. [SEE ALSO: Metrognome. ("HE DOESN'T ABLY DETER PESTS.")]

Tonight's Game. I hate this prediction as a rule (should be a great game!), but I have a tough time imagining that either team will have much of a edge in play. The Oilers have been doing a nice job creating scoring chances lately, but then again, there's no way on earth that Regehr & Sarich will have as ugly a game tonight as they did Sunday, and I don't foresee any goals off of cutesy passes through the slot.

Fun game day quote:

"I think he’s gotten away with a lot," said MacTavish of Regehr. "A lot of real dangerous hits and dirty hits in a lot of ways, where clearly he’s trying to hurt him. It’s really puzzling for me to see a player of Hemsky’s ability have to be subjected to that type of punishment."

Naturally, Regehr was asked for a response, and the big defenceman suggested Hemsky was responsible for much of the contact because he's so aggressive on the forecheck. As to why Hemsky usually comes out second best in the collisions, Regehr slyly said: "It’s usually the guy who’s stronger winning those battles."

I'm going to go with Calgary 3, Edmonton 2. Huselius rises from the dead with 3 points, including an assist on Iginla's 50th. Go Flames.